Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Larval Connectivity of the American Lobster off of Southern New England
Support: NOAA Saltonstall-Kennedy, Buzzards Bay Garden Club
Collaborators: J. Churchill (WHOI, PI), R. Wahle (UMaine), T. Pugh (MADMF), B. Glenn (MADMF), B. Shank (NOAA), K. Stokesbury,
Students: M.S. candidate Flynn Casey is leading the modeling effort
During the 1990s, Buzzards Bay supported a commercially viable lobster fishery within Lobster Management Area-2 (LMA-2). American lobster landings and employment of commercial lobstermen in LMA-2 have since decreased substantially, concurrent with declines in abundance and inshore postlarval settlement. These changes occurred during a period of significant warming of coastal waters off of southern New England. Water temperature may significantly impact recruitment, as larval development and survival are temperature-dependent and high inshore temperatures may prompt adults to remain further offshore during that critical time of egg-release. We are employing a coupled biophysical individual-based model (IBM) driven by hindcasts to simulate the transport of larvae released over the domain of LMA-2. Numerical trajectories will be used to determine the impact of the offshore shift in the distribution of egg- bearing females on delivery to the local Buzzards Bay population. Connectivity between realized and potential release sites within LMA-2 and inshore postlarval settlement in Buzzards Bay will be examined. These investigations are expected to facilitate management of the American lobster in LMA-2, and other areas under similar circumstances, by advancing an understanding of how population dynamics are affected by warming temperatures.